A week after our last post on March 15th, this author became symptomatic and subsequently tested positive COVID-19. It was a relatively mild case. However, the adverse effects of the virus disrupted our schedule. We thank you for your patience during these unprecedented times.
In the weeks following the maelstrom caused by the coronavirus, we have been intently focused on the corresponding data. Many areas of America are only now beginning to see an exponential uptick in infections. But at the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak in New York City, and in other “hot spots” like Detroit and the state of New Jersey, evidence suggests that we have reached the peak in terms of infection rates, hospitalizations, intubations and casualties. Worth noting is that while death rates remain elevated, bear in mind that mortality is a lagging indicator. Indeed, in these parts of the country, we are cautiously optimistic that we have inflected towards recovery, albeit in nonlinear fashion.
In New York City, hospitals are operating at or near capacity and health care workers are short of protective gear. But unlike Italy where care has had to be rationed – when doctors pick who lives and who dies – it appears that NYC will get through the apex of its crisis with enough ventilators, ICU beds and other necessary equipment to avoid the unthinkable.
Below we highlight nine key themes that have emerged from the coronavirus pandemic:
The Victims
The coronavirus pandemic is a human tragedy. The speed and ferocity with which COVID-19 has claimed, and disrupted lives is unprecedented in recent history. As of April 12th, in New York City alone, over twice as many people have perished from the coronavirus than on 9/11. On a national level ~22,000 people have died in just ~2 months. To help put these numbers in perspective: over nine years (1965-1974) ~58,000 U.S. troops were killed in Vietnam. Regrettably, despite evidence of the “curve flattening,” we might eclipse that number in a matter of weeks.
Globally, the coronavirus has infected close to ~2,000,000 people (the true number is probably exponentially higher as many people are never tested and/or are asymptomatic) and killed ~114,000 in a few short months. Italy (~20,000 deaths) and Spain (~17,000 deaths) have suffered tremendously, especially in proportion to their overall populations. France (~14,000 deaths) has been hard hit, as has the U.K. (~11,000 deaths), who’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson was recently hospitalized with the virus.
At TQC, we empathize with those people who have been directly or indirectly affected by COVID-19, and with those who might be in the future.
The Healthcare Providers
Every evening at 7pm EST, New Yorkers have taken to clapping, cheering, banging on pots, pipes and pans, and playing music in recognition and appreciation of the healthcare workers who are risking their lives to care for COVID-19 patients. This exercise has been repeated in similar formats around the world.
Let us all join in and take a moment to express our gratitude to all the health care professionals - doctors, physicians’ assistants, nurses, nurses’ aides, EMTs, support staff, and all others who have and continue to put themselves at the greatest level of risk – sometimes without adequate protective equipment - caring for coronavirus patients. Hats off to you all.
Doctor Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has proven himself to be a true leader and a face of reason, transparency and prudence, keeping Americans well informed about the coronavirus epidemic. Let us not forget, Dr. Fauci is nearing 80 years old and still on the front lines fighting tirelessly to keep the American public safe.
Recently, while discussing hygiene and disease, Dr. Fauci said, “I don’t think we should ever shake hands again.” If we ever get an opportunity to do so, we sincerely hope Doctor Fauci makes an exception for us. A handshake is the very least we could do to recognize his courageousness.
The Government’s Response
Our government’s initial “response” was lackluster to say the least. One of the basic functions of a government is to take all reasonable measures to keep its citizens safe. The US government fell well short of that responsibility. We had a 6-week head start to prepare but instead took a lackadaisical approach. President Donald Trump did not act swiftly enough. At first, he minimized the threat of COVID-19 likening the virus to the flu, contradicted the advice of Dr. Fauci, made no effort to secure more N95 masks, protective gowns and ventilators, and failed to invoke the Defense Production Act (DPA) in a timely manner. (The DPA was passed in 1950. It enables the Federal government to force private companies to manufacture specific products in the event of a war or national emergency). The fact that there were not even enough testing kits to go around – and they are still in short supply - after witnessing the outbreaks overseas was a gross abdication of responsibility to American citizens.
To be fair, in addition to Trump & Co, many people, including scientists, also did not take the threat of coronavirus seriously. Some experts believed the outcome would be analogous to the respective SARS & MERS epidemics, and remain mostly contained to China and the Middle East. (There were 27 reported SARS cases in the United States; nobody perished. There have been two reported cases of MERS in the US, both patients survived).
Furthermore, during Barrack Obama’s tenure in office, our nations’ stockpile of N95 masks and other protective gear was depleted and his administration did not take adequate steps to replenish it. According to USA Today: “There is no indication that the Obama administration took significant steps to replenish the supply of N95 masks in the Strategic National Stockpile after it was depleted from repeated crises. Calls for action came from experts at the time concerned for the country’s ability to respond to future serious pandemics. Such recommendations were, for whatever reason, not heeded."
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